Prediction....

As much as I hate to do this, I really should publish a finish-time prediction for the Richmond Marathon for all to see.  I have thought a lot about this (99% of the thinking has actually been on my runs; I don't spend too many brain cycles on running when I'm not actually running) (plus you gotta think about *something* when you are running in the dark) (and cold).  At the beginning of my training, my goal was sub-4:00.  Now, it's not.  I'm *hoping* for a 4:10, and 4:16 would be good as well.  Given the fact that I still feel my left knee when I run (and it makes an audible 'click' when I walk), my left ankle injury has re-surfaced now that I've done a few long runs, and there's a weird pain in my right foot, that feels like bones scraping when I push off hard to the right or left, I'm hoping that I can hold out for a 9:30 pace (4:10 total).  A 9:45 pace would be good (4:16).  A 10:00 pace (4:22)? Hmmm... ask me at mile 20.

Oh, by the way, my predictions in the past have been totally wrong.  At Richmond two years ago, I felt I had a sub-4:00 in the bag... until mile 22.  At Frederick 1.5 years ago, I felt I had a 4:00... until mile 18 (at mile 22 I was wondering if I was going to finish).  However, as bad as I felt on my 22-miler, at least I have done one, and that means that I should be okay until mile 20 (famous last words).  Then, just like the shirt says... a marathon is just a 10K, with a 20-mile warmup.  At 20 miles, it's *just* a 10K.

Oy...